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Sunday, October 14, 2018

Late October Nor'easter?

Hello everyone!

I'm seeing a few twitter accounts bumping their chest about the probability of a late October Nor'easter. The Bering Sea Rule had this probability back on October 7th.

I've actually been watching the models for the past couple of days.

12z run of 10OCT18


The next day had a system in the Northern Gulf just begging to hit the SE and move NE...


Compare that to what the BSR had on the 6th!


We are still a tad early for the East Asia Rule, but the models show the potential is there. The first graphic is from the EAR map page for purposes of the overlay.


Here is the Euro from yesterday's 00z run.


A few GFS options...

12z 12OCT18


00z 14OCT18


06z 14OCT18


00z 13OCT18 CMC just missed the connection to bring it up the coast...


How about the daily Southern Oscillation Index method? At the beginning of the month we saw a spike in both 3 day 20pt and one day 10pt...


Day 24 and day 25 of the 10pt rise...ummm....look familiar? Wow?!



Look at the lower heights over the SE on day 25 via my 20pt composites...



So, as you can see, the potential for a Nor'easter has been teleconnected for a few days via OFM.

Monday, October 1, 2018

Early October Severe Weather

Hello all,

Something that I have done for quite a few years now is utilize the OrganicForecasting method, or OFM, to predict severe weather.  Below you will find the composite of SPC high & medium risk days during a neutral fall seasons between 1991-2016.

Large trough in the lee of the Rockies and Western Plains with a anomalous ridge centered over Montreal, Canada.

The BSR website showed the same depiction. Trough West with SW Flow aloft an East Ridge with a hint of NE trough.

Next up is the daily Southern Oscillation Index. The composite below is for day 14 after a 20pt drop of three days centered on 22SEP18.

With day 0 on the 23rd, I get this with my spreadsheet...

Now, the composites for Days 14-16...



Day 16 gets muted because immediately following, we had a rise with day 0 being the 26th of September.

Now, look at the EAR depiction...

A trough west and ridging East with nice vorticity moving from Texas into the Tennessee Valley.

Latest modeling...

01OCT18 12z GFS

00z 01OCT18 ECMWF


So, I will leave you with how various aspects of OFM showed the signals of severe weather and can be an asset to a forecaster.

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Late September - Early October Autumn Shot? Yep...Organic Forecasting Had It!

Hello all,

#wxtwitter and Facebook is a buzz in a rush to act like they were first to call the cooler period come late September and early October.

The first hint of a pattern change was back on August 17th via the extended CPC analog method that I utilize.
Gone are the AN green, yellow, and orange's from the map and the normal whites are taking over an expansive area of the Eastern USA with blue hues in the Northeast.

The next week the maps flipped back to a warm Eastern US with a trough out West.
The current 5 day depiction of the models is that the trough is further East than the above, but the basis of a warmer East had merit.

So let's follow up with the next week analog forecast, August 31st.
Wow! Talk about a huge signal of BN encompassing most of the East for the first part of October!

During this time, the daily SOI was fairly stagnant.

Here is the link for September's BSR. When I attempted to create an animated gif file it didn't upload correctly and that's quite a few pictures to place in the blog. Pay attention to the period between the 23rd and 30th. High pressure in charge over the East while an ULL drifts South towards the Gulf Coast.

The NAEFS from September 15th had this with BN on the West Coast/Northern Plains and AN over the East with normal over Texas...


Ironically enough, the CMC has lower anomalies over Texas growing by the 30th.

EPS had it a few days earlier on the 27th...

Just as the models have the orientation of the ridge-trough-ridge differently, the BSR has the same issue.

During the same time period of BSR initiation, the SOI experienced a dramatic drop in both 1 day and 3 day periods from September 4th - September 7th.

I've seen some attempt to utilize #organicforecasting "generic" #dailySOI research in an attempt to forecast the weather 18 days in advance via a chart. There are multiple issues with said chart. For instance, the chart doesn't take into account how there are changes in the atmosphere based on the ENSO, seasonal jet changes, and whether there is a 20pt drop in 3 days or a 10pt drop in one day. Per my research composites, the result is this during a Neutral Fall 21 days after a significant drop...
Look familiar? How about comparing it to the NWS CPC 6-10 day issued today?


When the EAR maps come to play, they do very well in highlighting the maps above considering the lead time. In fact, they mimic the maps above almost to a 't'. The EAR has a strong ULL pushing South from Mongolia into Manchuria. Our overlay has this in the Upper Plains/Midwest region. Also, note the vorticity moving towards Hangzhou and Shanghai which is Texas in the overlay.

Now, I'll bring the Week 5-6 analog to show some relationship...

Note the AN over the Rockies and BN stretching from West Texas to the Northeast. Have a gander at the NAEFS from today...

Yes, I'm aware of the dates not ending at the same time, but again, it's pattern recognition. Here is the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook to boot.


Again...anyone claiming that my #organicforecasting is 1:1 relationship needs to stop.

Interpretation is key and "we sniff out the pattern and picking out the right pattern is what it's all about!"


Thursday, September 13, 2018

Utilizing Organic Methods To Forecast Tropical Systems

Hello all,

I have been busy as all get out and am sorry for not updating the blog. Between caring for my family, getting a promotion at my 9-5, and squeezing in more research, it just hasn't been easy to post. Not to mention, having to figure out what should be posted from the research has pushed me away from posting.

Just a reminder that my various methods have hit the two tropical systems well in advance.

Tropical Storm Gordon was hinted at on August 3rd and 17th, respectfully, for the first part of September.







August 9th, the BSR did have a tropical system moving in from the Gulf on the 30th.

On August 18th, the EAR started to hint at a pattern of a tropical system moving from the Caribbean into the Florida Straits before hitting the Gulf Coast on the 30th also.

Now...taking the information above, with the analogs attached, I would have voiced that my concern was for a tropical system hitting the central gulf in late August or early September.

Now I will bring your attention to Hurricane Florence.

The same analog forecast which foretold Gordon, saw this for a possible SE hit on the 17th and 24th.


Much like earlier, the BSR had a tropical system stall out on the 6th...right off of North Carolina.

While the EAR had it slingshot from Florida straight up the MidAtl a few days later after the 11th.

Due to the "delay" experienced with Gordon, my warning would've been for late the 2nd week of September.

Finally...was this a hint of Isaac?


The BSR had a system moving North from the Gulf around the 20th!

I will be bringing up the faster depictions of the BSR/EAR to Dr. Lupo and see what we can come up with.

Friday, November 3, 2017

Bering Sea Rule Case Study Moment

Hello everyone!

I noticed a tweet from the BAMwx twitter account which reminded people that even though a -WPO configuration will provide for short term cooler weather, the long term outlook isn't as pretty.



As a reminder, here are the EPO/WPO combinations at the 500mb level.

 

Upon seeing the tweet I went ahead and looked up the Bering Sea Rule aspect 19 days earlier below.
Shemya Island is our Springfield, MO and Kodiak Island is our Bangor, ME correlations. So...let's place the two ESRL maps side by side...


Note how in the CONUS ESRL map has AN (Above Normal) heights just North of the Dakota's diminishing as it works South and the BN (Below Normal) heights to the SE of Maine. Those mimic what happened 19 days earlier in the Bering Sea.

Throwing in my SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) research and this is what I came up with 19 days after a 3 day drop of 20 points! Yes...I know it was 17.15, but it also mimics the one day drop of 10 points in our research with AN over the top and BN off the East Coast.

20pt drop in three days

10pt drop in one day