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Sunday, December 27, 2015

More Support For 11January16 Severe Weather

Just looked at the range of models in the period between the 5th and 6th of January.  The Typhoon Rule states that the pattern over East Asia has a direct correlation with the Eastern CONUS in 6-10 days.  So, I thought to myself...with my January 11th severe weather event call I had better take a gander out there to see what's up.  Low and behold I was not disappointed...

00z 28DEC15 GFS


Here we see the GFS with a trough attempting to go negative over Manchuria.

12Z 27DEC15 Euro


The Euro has a bowling ball upper level low that progresses from Mongolia.

Timing and placement issues aside, the pattern looks good!

Saturday, December 26, 2015

A Comparison of Sorts

A comparison of sorts...

November 20th, 2015

8-10 day forecast suites


December 20th, 2015 

8-10 day forecast suites


Does someone want to play the X-Files theme song for me as it pertains to looking at points West of the Rockies? Going even farther...the lower heights in the Bahama's move it North and there's your lower heights being currently shown.

Friday, December 11, 2015

A Very Active Organic Forecasting Period

Hello all,

I am sure that you are hearing the buzz regarding  a monster storm that is forecasted in the Bering Sea.



Let's focus on the Bering Sea System first.

Here is the current warning for the Bering Sea...

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ413-121445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. GUSTS TO 85 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E
OF 176E. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT BUILDING TO 25 TO 40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.


On Saturday night into Sunday they are expecting seas of 42ft with 50-65kt winds with a 928mb estimated pressure!  It's seeing forecast like these that make me happy I chose the submarine force.  A little comparison regarding last year's news-maker, Super Typhoon Nuri bottomed out at 924mb. Note the tracks of each...



Nuri retrogrades while in the Bering Sea which lead to the sustained cold we experienced in late November.



Here is the current track of our system this year...




The current lag time as to when we are looking at the BSR timeline is 19 days.  So, add 19 days to the 13th-15th and we get between January 1st and January 3rd of 2016.  My research partner, Josh Hermann, created an animated gif of the storm from a prior run with the 'estimated track' of the surface low pressure.


What you aren't hearing about is Typhoon Melor, which is forecasted to hit the Philippines and then get shredded into a minor cyclone.  If a typhoon moves due west it shows that a ridge is over the top in East Asia and Japan.



Applying the typhoon rule and we see that we will expect warmth between the 19th and 22nd of December before a new series of systems move through the Central CONUS.

Mid December Wave 5 Pattern

One of the best discoveries that I found while the initial research period of the BSR was NCAR's research into the wave-5 pattern.
Note the 8-10 day outlooks from 12z.
11dec15_wave5
Just in case...here are the 00z
11dec15_wave5_2
The key is placement of the trough. The euro looks more like a Great Lakes/NNE while the GFS is Plains/Rockies look and the CMC is a Rockies focus.
Keep an eye on this as the current lag is ~19 days which translates to the January 5-7, 2016 period.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

#WXTX2016 Conference Update



Hello everyone!  Late last night I received an email from the organizers of the Texas Weather Conference to inform the team that our abstract has been accepted for a poster presentation!  Looking forward to being at the University of Texas on the 5th and 6th of February!



Sunday, November 22, 2015

Late November-Early December Storm Update

Hello everyone!

It's been 10 days since my last post regarding the Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities.  Needless to say, it has become more interesting.  First, let me show that the very next day after my post here, I posted this on the Accuweather Forums.


Once again, I posted a blog before looking at everything in front of me as this is what I did immediately following my post here on the 12th.


Here is the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day analog set...

The explanation of what the dates on the lower right mean...


Do we remember what that storm for #1 analog is?  I do...My family just moved to the Northeast side of Columbia, MO in September of 2006.  Jeff Huffman was the morning meteorologist on KMIZ and was warning everyone just how significant this storm was going to be.  I measured 17" of snow in my backyard and witnessed thundersnow on multiple occasions.  

Let me be clear that in no way am I saying the the Central US will see results like this again almost to the day...

Here are  a few 12z 22NOV15 Model results...

GFS


European for November 30th

European for December 1st


Here are the corresponding "East Asia Rule" maps.  I don't have the overlay, but our correlation point is Seoul, South Korea is roughly Clarksville, TN and Nashville is the east coast of South Korea.

GFS



European



Note just how close those are to the track of our low back in 2006?



Now...look at he surface from the BSR.


Thursday, November 12, 2015

Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities

Hello all,

Over the years, Josh and I have been able to predict what type of storm, or general storm track, we'd see in the coming 20 days with a mixture of his Rossby Wave research combined with the BSR.  While looking at the Accuweather "Organic Forecasting" thread, I saw a perfect opportunity.

Below is a group of 'BSR H5 Maps' from our site starting with a 12Z 09NOV15 Northern Pacific OBS.

Pay attention to the trough that shows up just North of Washington State in the overlay.






Note how the system dives down into 'North Dakota' as if it was a clipper system.



It then "lifts" northeast to just North of Lake Superior.


Our next frame shows that it has jumped off the Mid-Atlantic coast while deepening. How can I be sure?  In the frame above, you can see another system to the NW of our original.  That system has rotated to the Quebec region of Canada. 



Here is merely an example of the difference between a 'Miller A' and 'Miller B' storm.



We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!


In the coming days we will keep track of how the models show this system and how the typhoon rule will come to play!


Friday, November 6, 2015

Texas Weather Conference

Hello everyone!

I have just submitted our abstract to the Texas Weather Conference being held on February 5-6, 2016 at the University of Texas in Austin.


Thursday, November 5, 2015

16th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting

Hello everyone!

I completely forgot to post here on how our abstract has been accepted to present at the American Meteorological Society's 16 Annual Meeting being held in New Orleans, LA come January!



If you have any questions, please feel free to contact our team!

Comparing CPC products to BSR Observations

So I had a crazy idea this morning while looking at the Climate Prediction Center's products.  It's been a while since I had compared their products to what was going on with the Bering Sea Rule.

Let's look at the 6-10 Day product from yesterday.



Here is what the Bering Sea Looked like 20 days prior.



Again, not an exact match, but this is due to the variability of the Rossby Waves and our lag time.  The key point is how we can predict the Pacific-North American Oscillation, or PNA, 20 days in advance with some impressive skill.



Now, let's look at the 8-14 Day outlook from yesterday. Here we can see a slight shift to the West in the Northern Plains per the below normal probabilities getting smaller and decrease in above normal probabilities in the South.



Even though it's once again not a perfect match we can see the pattern very clearly.  Above normal heights have shifted West in the NW Bering Sea and below normal heights have shifted East in the form of a Sub-Aleutian low.




It's all about the pattern and picking the right pattern is what it's all about!





Monday, November 2, 2015

Mid-November Follow Up

Good morning everyone!

While looking through the long range GFS, I saw something familiar.  Note the quasi-omega block look to the model run for the 16th of November.



Here is our "derived model" of what we were expecting the 16th to be back on October 30th!





We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Mid-October Follow Up

Hello all!

This is Joe Renken following up on Josh's 04OCT15 post regarding

BSR Showing Central US FROPA Mid October



As you can see below, the 30SEPT15 & 02OCT15 500mb charts from the OPC Archived Charts 


Here is the 12z 17OCT15 GFS 500mb Anomaly chart for 19OCT15.






Please note the numbers in the first OPC chart and the GFS chart.  
  1. Trough over the PAC NW.
  2. ULL in the SW.
  3. Ridge over the Mississippi Valley
  4. Trough over the Grand Banks off Newfoundland.

Now look at the same GFS anomaly chart for 21OCT15!


The OPC chart on the right matches up with the above.
  1. Trough off the PAC NW.
  2. ULL cut off in the SW.
  3. Ridge over the Mississippi Valley.
  4. ULL just South of Hudson Bay.
  5. Slight trough over the TN Valley.
  6. Stationary/zonal flow over Florida.
  7. Warm front over the extreme NE CONUS.


Look at the latest surface forecast from the WPC for day 5.



On a side note, the BSR team has created a few graphics based on a Fourier Analysis of the daily PNA numbers since 1/1/1951.

The graphs are going to show you wave number on the x-axis.  This is for 1/1/1951 – now or 23623 days. So to get a period for the wave you take the total days and divide by wave number.

    So 100  would be 23623 / 100 = 236 days.  

    Or 38 days you’ll see as 23623 / wave number 620 on the second graph. I graph wave numbers out to 2500. Which is roughly 8 days.  Note there is less “power” in the PNA index with smaller periods. This is normal.



We are looking forward to presenting at the 40th CPCDW located in Denver this year!

Sunday, October 4, 2015

BSR Showing Central US FROPA Mid October

Bering Sea Rule lag time to Contiguous United States is currently ~19 days. A warm-up is coming mid October for the central United States, then a frontal passage.


Thursday, September 17, 2015