Thursday, November 12, 2015

Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities

Hello all,

Over the years, Josh and I have been able to predict what type of storm, or general storm track, we'd see in the coming 20 days with a mixture of his Rossby Wave research combined with the BSR.  While looking at the Accuweather "Organic Forecasting" thread, I saw a perfect opportunity.

Below is a group of 'BSR H5 Maps' from our site starting with a 12Z 09NOV15 Northern Pacific OBS.

Pay attention to the trough that shows up just North of Washington State in the overlay.






Note how the system dives down into 'North Dakota' as if it was a clipper system.



It then "lifts" northeast to just North of Lake Superior.


Our next frame shows that it has jumped off the Mid-Atlantic coast while deepening. How can I be sure?  In the frame above, you can see another system to the NW of our original.  That system has rotated to the Quebec region of Canada. 



Here is merely an example of the difference between a 'Miller A' and 'Miller B' storm.



We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!


In the coming days we will keep track of how the models show this system and how the typhoon rule will come to play!


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