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Thursday, November 5, 2015

Comparing CPC products to BSR Observations

So I had a crazy idea this morning while looking at the Climate Prediction Center's products.  It's been a while since I had compared their products to what was going on with the Bering Sea Rule.

Let's look at the 6-10 Day product from yesterday.



Here is what the Bering Sea Looked like 20 days prior.



Again, not an exact match, but this is due to the variability of the Rossby Waves and our lag time.  The key point is how we can predict the Pacific-North American Oscillation, or PNA, 20 days in advance with some impressive skill.



Now, let's look at the 8-14 Day outlook from yesterday. Here we can see a slight shift to the West in the Northern Plains per the below normal probabilities getting smaller and decrease in above normal probabilities in the South.



Even though it's once again not a perfect match we can see the pattern very clearly.  Above normal heights have shifted West in the NW Bering Sea and below normal heights have shifted East in the form of a Sub-Aleutian low.




It's all about the pattern and picking the right pattern is what it's all about!





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