Sunday, November 22, 2015

Late November-Early December Storm Update

Hello everyone!

It's been 10 days since my last post regarding the Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities.  Needless to say, it has become more interesting.  First, let me show that the very next day after my post here, I posted this on the Accuweather Forums.


Once again, I posted a blog before looking at everything in front of me as this is what I did immediately following my post here on the 12th.


Here is the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day analog set...

The explanation of what the dates on the lower right mean...


Do we remember what that storm for #1 analog is?  I do...My family just moved to the Northeast side of Columbia, MO in September of 2006.  Jeff Huffman was the morning meteorologist on KMIZ and was warning everyone just how significant this storm was going to be.  I measured 17" of snow in my backyard and witnessed thundersnow on multiple occasions.  

Let me be clear that in no way am I saying the the Central US will see results like this again almost to the day...

Here are  a few 12z 22NOV15 Model results...

GFS


European for November 30th

European for December 1st


Here are the corresponding "East Asia Rule" maps.  I don't have the overlay, but our correlation point is Seoul, South Korea is roughly Clarksville, TN and Nashville is the east coast of South Korea.

GFS



European



Note just how close those are to the track of our low back in 2006?



Now...look at he surface from the BSR.


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