Friday, December 11, 2015

A Very Active Organic Forecasting Period

Hello all,

I am sure that you are hearing the buzz regarding  a monster storm that is forecasted in the Bering Sea.



Let's focus on the Bering Sea System first.

Here is the current warning for the Bering Sea...

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ413-121445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. GUSTS TO 85 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E
OF 176E. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT BUILDING TO 25 TO 40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.


On Saturday night into Sunday they are expecting seas of 42ft with 50-65kt winds with a 928mb estimated pressure!  It's seeing forecast like these that make me happy I chose the submarine force.  A little comparison regarding last year's news-maker, Super Typhoon Nuri bottomed out at 924mb. Note the tracks of each...



Nuri retrogrades while in the Bering Sea which lead to the sustained cold we experienced in late November.



Here is the current track of our system this year...




The current lag time as to when we are looking at the BSR timeline is 19 days.  So, add 19 days to the 13th-15th and we get between January 1st and January 3rd of 2016.  My research partner, Josh Hermann, created an animated gif of the storm from a prior run with the 'estimated track' of the surface low pressure.


What you aren't hearing about is Typhoon Melor, which is forecasted to hit the Philippines and then get shredded into a minor cyclone.  If a typhoon moves due west it shows that a ridge is over the top in East Asia and Japan.



Applying the typhoon rule and we see that we will expect warmth between the 19th and 22nd of December before a new series of systems move through the Central CONUS.

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