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Sunday, November 22, 2015

Late November-Early December Storm Update

Hello everyone!

It's been 10 days since my last post regarding the Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities.  Needless to say, it has become more interesting.  First, let me show that the very next day after my post here, I posted this on the Accuweather Forums.


Once again, I posted a blog before looking at everything in front of me as this is what I did immediately following my post here on the 12th.


Here is the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day analog set...

The explanation of what the dates on the lower right mean...


Do we remember what that storm for #1 analog is?  I do...My family just moved to the Northeast side of Columbia, MO in September of 2006.  Jeff Huffman was the morning meteorologist on KMIZ and was warning everyone just how significant this storm was going to be.  I measured 17" of snow in my backyard and witnessed thundersnow on multiple occasions.  

Let me be clear that in no way am I saying the the Central US will see results like this again almost to the day...

Here are  a few 12z 22NOV15 Model results...

GFS


European for November 30th

European for December 1st


Here are the corresponding "East Asia Rule" maps.  I don't have the overlay, but our correlation point is Seoul, South Korea is roughly Clarksville, TN and Nashville is the east coast of South Korea.

GFS



European



Note just how close those are to the track of our low back in 2006?



Now...look at he surface from the BSR.


Thursday, November 12, 2015

Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities

Hello all,

Over the years, Josh and I have been able to predict what type of storm, or general storm track, we'd see in the coming 20 days with a mixture of his Rossby Wave research combined with the BSR.  While looking at the Accuweather "Organic Forecasting" thread, I saw a perfect opportunity.

Below is a group of 'BSR H5 Maps' from our site starting with a 12Z 09NOV15 Northern Pacific OBS.

Pay attention to the trough that shows up just North of Washington State in the overlay.






Note how the system dives down into 'North Dakota' as if it was a clipper system.



It then "lifts" northeast to just North of Lake Superior.


Our next frame shows that it has jumped off the Mid-Atlantic coast while deepening. How can I be sure?  In the frame above, you can see another system to the NW of our original.  That system has rotated to the Quebec region of Canada. 



Here is merely an example of the difference between a 'Miller A' and 'Miller B' storm.



We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!


In the coming days we will keep track of how the models show this system and how the typhoon rule will come to play!


Friday, November 6, 2015

Texas Weather Conference

Hello everyone!

I have just submitted our abstract to the Texas Weather Conference being held on February 5-6, 2016 at the University of Texas in Austin.


Thursday, November 5, 2015

16th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting

Hello everyone!

I completely forgot to post here on how our abstract has been accepted to present at the American Meteorological Society's 16 Annual Meeting being held in New Orleans, LA come January!



If you have any questions, please feel free to contact our team!

Comparing CPC products to BSR Observations

So I had a crazy idea this morning while looking at the Climate Prediction Center's products.  It's been a while since I had compared their products to what was going on with the Bering Sea Rule.

Let's look at the 6-10 Day product from yesterday.



Here is what the Bering Sea Looked like 20 days prior.



Again, not an exact match, but this is due to the variability of the Rossby Waves and our lag time.  The key point is how we can predict the Pacific-North American Oscillation, or PNA, 20 days in advance with some impressive skill.



Now, let's look at the 8-14 Day outlook from yesterday. Here we can see a slight shift to the West in the Northern Plains per the below normal probabilities getting smaller and decrease in above normal probabilities in the South.



Even though it's once again not a perfect match we can see the pattern very clearly.  Above normal heights have shifted West in the NW Bering Sea and below normal heights have shifted East in the form of a Sub-Aleutian low.




It's all about the pattern and picking the right pattern is what it's all about!





Monday, November 2, 2015

Mid-November Follow Up

Good morning everyone!

While looking through the long range GFS, I saw something familiar.  Note the quasi-omega block look to the model run for the 16th of November.



Here is our "derived model" of what we were expecting the 16th to be back on October 30th!





We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!