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Sunday, December 27, 2015

More Support For 11January16 Severe Weather

Just looked at the range of models in the period between the 5th and 6th of January.  The Typhoon Rule states that the pattern over East Asia has a direct correlation with the Eastern CONUS in 6-10 days.  So, I thought to myself...with my January 11th severe weather event call I had better take a gander out there to see what's up.  Low and behold I was not disappointed...

00z 28DEC15 GFS


Here we see the GFS with a trough attempting to go negative over Manchuria.

12Z 27DEC15 Euro


The Euro has a bowling ball upper level low that progresses from Mongolia.

Timing and placement issues aside, the pattern looks good!

Saturday, December 26, 2015

A Comparison of Sorts

A comparison of sorts...

November 20th, 2015

8-10 day forecast suites


December 20th, 2015 

8-10 day forecast suites


Does someone want to play the X-Files theme song for me as it pertains to looking at points West of the Rockies? Going even farther...the lower heights in the Bahama's move it North and there's your lower heights being currently shown.

Friday, December 11, 2015

A Very Active Organic Forecasting Period

Hello all,

I am sure that you are hearing the buzz regarding  a monster storm that is forecasted in the Bering Sea.



Let's focus on the Bering Sea System first.

Here is the current warning for the Bering Sea...

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ413-121445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. GUSTS TO 85 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E
OF 176E. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT BUILDING TO 25 TO 40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.


On Saturday night into Sunday they are expecting seas of 42ft with 50-65kt winds with a 928mb estimated pressure!  It's seeing forecast like these that make me happy I chose the submarine force.  A little comparison regarding last year's news-maker, Super Typhoon Nuri bottomed out at 924mb. Note the tracks of each...



Nuri retrogrades while in the Bering Sea which lead to the sustained cold we experienced in late November.



Here is the current track of our system this year...




The current lag time as to when we are looking at the BSR timeline is 19 days.  So, add 19 days to the 13th-15th and we get between January 1st and January 3rd of 2016.  My research partner, Josh Hermann, created an animated gif of the storm from a prior run with the 'estimated track' of the surface low pressure.


What you aren't hearing about is Typhoon Melor, which is forecasted to hit the Philippines and then get shredded into a minor cyclone.  If a typhoon moves due west it shows that a ridge is over the top in East Asia and Japan.



Applying the typhoon rule and we see that we will expect warmth between the 19th and 22nd of December before a new series of systems move through the Central CONUS.

Mid December Wave 5 Pattern

One of the best discoveries that I found while the initial research period of the BSR was NCAR's research into the wave-5 pattern.
Note the 8-10 day outlooks from 12z.
11dec15_wave5
Just in case...here are the 00z
11dec15_wave5_2
The key is placement of the trough. The euro looks more like a Great Lakes/NNE while the GFS is Plains/Rockies look and the CMC is a Rockies focus.
Keep an eye on this as the current lag is ~19 days which translates to the January 5-7, 2016 period.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

#WXTX2016 Conference Update



Hello everyone!  Late last night I received an email from the organizers of the Texas Weather Conference to inform the team that our abstract has been accepted for a poster presentation!  Looking forward to being at the University of Texas on the 5th and 6th of February!