Saturday, December 24, 2016

Year In Review and Christmas Week Follow Up

Hey everyone!

Here we are, Christmas Eve of 2016.  It's amazing how fast the year has flown by!

Some highlights of 2016 for #organicforecasting as a whole...


  1. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the American Meteorological Society's New Orleans Annual Meeting in January.
  2. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the local Kansas City AMS chapter.
  3. Submitted the Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule for peer review.
  4. Recurring Rossby Wave Train abstracts were accepted to the National Weather Association's Norfolk, VA Annual Meeting in September for oral presentation and Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop held in Bangor, ME this past October for poster presentation.
  5. Established contacts within the National Weather Service for continued collaboration into research.
  6. Josh has streamlined the data section of organicforecasting.com by adding plenty of new items and tweaking the Recurring Rossby Wave Train calculations.
  7. Interviewed by the University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources and taught the Long Range Forecasting Class of Mizzou's meteorology program our organic forecasting techniques.

Let's go ahead and talk about a few things this week.  What the BSR started to see for the 5 day range on December 12th for the 21st-Christmas Day.




Below you will find the NWS Weather Prediction Center's anomaly maps initialized today for the 1-5 and 3-7 day range.











A few tweets early this month...


Tuesday, December 13, 2016

What's All The Hoopla About...Part Two!

In my hoopla post on December 1st, I discussed how the #BSR saw the pattern change to cold that we are, and will, experience in the coming days.  Let's focus on the last section of that post.

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.
Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…
Note the ridge with the highest anomalies just South of the Aleutian Island chain and moving into the Eastern Bering Sea.  
BSR Map
Our current lag time is running at 17 days.
BSR Lag
Here is the NOAA CPC 8-14 day analog.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

What's All The Hoopla About??!!


Now, those that know me know I'm just poking fun with the above.  Why do you ask?  Well, the Bering Sea Rule gave us a heads up on Veterans Day! Note the key features of an ULL in South Central California, a shortwave in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and another off Cape Cod.

Here is the WPC 500mb forecast issued yesterday evening. Note the similarities??!!

I see an ULL feature over the Baja, a shortwave in the mid-Plains, and another off New England.

Here is what the future holds in 5 day increments via the 500mb anomalies.


Tropical Tidbits only allows me to use 850mb 5 day averages, but the premise remains.

The strength lies in the West and "bleeds" east ladies and gentlemen, just like the BSR showed!

Here is what the EAR maps showed also, which is part of our "trifecta" of Organic Forecasting.



As you can see from above, strong system from the West comes into the Rockies and ejects into the Great Lakes which brings the cold air behind it.

For good measure, let's add the SOID metric that we are researching as we speak...



Hmmm...a 33.15 drop in 3 days between November 13th and November 16th.  Coincidence...I think not.

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and "was wasting your time".

Umm...yeah...Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO...



Wednesday, November 16, 2016

East Asia Region Added to the Recurring Rossby Wave Train Output

The East Asia Recurring Rossby Wave Train is alive. Refresh cache/iframe to unlock navigation.

http://www.organicforecasting.com/rrwt-for1.html




Please leave a comment for questions or suggestions on the material presented. Thanks for reading.

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

#SIGNALS

The Organic Forecasting Method is picking up on a few #signals that pertain to the last full week of October. Utilizing the Southern Oscillation Index, the Bering Sea Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train we can deduce a potentially volatile pattern to unfold. Take a peek at the image below. Click the image for a larger view.



+SOID showcases the H5 setup over the CONUS for 00Z 04OCT16 and a potential anomalous setup around 22OCT16
+BSR showcases the potential H5 setup over the CONUS for 23OCT16-25OCT16
+RRWT showcases the potential H5, 2mT, SLP, and PW setup over the CONUS 24OCT16-28OCT16

We shall see!

Please leave a comment for questions or suggestions on the material presented. Thanks for reading.

Friday, September 30, 2016

Busy As All Get Out!

Hello everyone!

It has been quite crazy for me.  My job at the Department of Veterans Affairs has been working me hard and it's a bit to get use to.

I attended the NWAS Annual Meeting on September 14th to present the Recurring Rossby Wave Train research and feel it went very well.  Once the NWAS updates the presentations to become available I'll let you know!  A shout out to those who continue to support me via the GoFundMe account! Without your support, I would not have the ability to attend these conferences!

One a side note, I had the luxury to discuss the #organicforecasting method to Ginger Zee of GMA!




Tuesday, August 23, 2016

The Recurring Rossby Wave Train

The OFM has adopted the RRWT.

Introduction
Establish numerical outputs of recurring atmospheric states. Further explore the interrelated nature of planetary and synoptic waves via statistical modeling. Reflect this temporal and spatial behavior of Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude weather patterns based on the empirical data.

Data Derivation
Gather data from radiosonde stations inside the conus. See figure 1. Manage the 500mb data for a single point, region, or entire conus. See figure 2. Seek top correlation in a 10-90 day range. Calculate average, mode, mean, and rank. See external blog post. Utilize the correlated oscillation periods to generate the local point trends and the 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25 day forecast composite maps. See figure 3.

Note: The fundamental seasonal ~90 day wave conforms to a multitude of waves (harmonics) defining the average (2nd harmonic), mode, mean, and top 10 ranked amplitudes (3rd, 4th, 5th harmonic, etc). However, the oscillation periods are not a direct conversion, but an arithmetic means of correlation. See figure 4, 5, and 6.

Testing
Recurring Rossby Wave Train (click here for Forecasts and Analysis)

Please leave a comment for questions or suggestions on the material presented.

Friday, July 15, 2016

When You Have Been Parodied!

Hello everyone!

Sorry that it has been some time since I've posted but life events have taken their toll on my ability to keep up here.  Since my post last month the popularity of our #organicforecasting method has gained some steam.  This, in due part, because of a few meteorologist who have been able to utilize our methodology very well in forecasting past the models current 14 days.  Not only that, but they have the ability to let their viewers know that when models go through the typical "cha-cha", that they need to be confident that the #organicforecasting method holds true.

Yes, we have seen some set backs here and there since I've started utilizing this method in earnest over 3 years ago.  However, that being said, our success has outpaced the set backs. We will continue to learn from the bust potentials that we've gone through and strive to improve the forecasting method.

With the above in mind, I found out four days ago that someone in Boston, MA created a parody twitter account to bring out our "failures".  One issue that I have is where they came after one of the meteorologist who utilizes our system, Michael Clark of BAM Chase.

Here is the tweet in question...

I know the ESRL map is too small to figure out the dates, but they are from June 23rd, 2016 through June 27th, 2016. A blown up version...



 So...Michael had stated it was going to get cooler during that period.  Let's look at the 5 days prior to that...June 17th, 2016 through June 22, 2016.

The above maps are utilizing the same reanalysis set from the Earth Systems Research Library so there is no confusion. As for the legend, even though the numbers on the right are set different, the range is still at .5 for each color code.

Let's place them side by side and you tell me if what we said came true?

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

The Weather Junkies Interview

Hey gang, Sorry that it took a while to update the blog with the latest #organicforecasting interview, but here it is.
Ep 25: Long Range Forecasts Using Bering Sea & Typhoon Rule w/ JD Renken


Thursday, May 12, 2016

A Test Among Long Range Temperature Outlooks

I created a short video on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train and compared it to the Climate Prediction Center's 3-4 week experimental product.


Thursday, March 31, 2016

SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.


Match that up with Josh's January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.  

Look at what the BSR is showing...


One might look at the above maps and think...how the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such...The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further...the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.

GFS


Euro

On a side note...here is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th...




Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support...

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini's research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Severe Weather To Open April

Hello everyone!

As stated earlier in the January 30th blog regarding our Recurring Rossby Wave Train Severe Weather Test, the beginning of April was highlighted.

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days
12/23-02/13-04/05-05/27 (Ref)

The BSR is showing this a tad bit early as the potential is showing up on April 3rd.




This time period was also highlighted on the CFS forecast initiated back on March 4th. Note the yellow 'x' on the 4th. That being said, the period from the 4th until the 9th in the most recent initiation looks good too.

 When you click on the 'x', it yields this.

To go along with the earlier statement regarding the period between the 4th and the 9th...check out this 21-25 day 500mb forecast via the #rrwt.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

When Organic Forecasting Sees The Future Months In Advance

Part of Josh's Recurring Rossby Wave Train research was a severe weather experiment first posted on January 30th. The Storm Prediction Center is utilizing a new experimental forecasting technique based on the Climate Forecasting System. Looking below you can see the results of the model from 1/26/16 until 3/10/16. Here is the link to said product below.


Cross reference the above with the dates that Josh provided on January 30th.
Foresight dates using OP of 52 days
12/23-02/13-04/05-05/27 (Ref)
12/30-02/20-04/12-06/03 (Ref)
01/09-03/01-04/22-06/13 (Ref)

 Now, as you can see above, the forecast on March 8th was the first to highlight the period between April 12th through April 21st. With Josh's experiment being documented on January 30th, that was a 38 day lead time until the CFS model hit on that period! Going further...that is a 73 and 83 day lead time for severe weather pattern recognition. That being said...I am going to introduce you to one of the graphics that Dr. Lupo created for our research paper based on Autocorrelation of the PNA.


As you can see, we have spikes at ~52 and ~76 days. This is just one of the series graphics that we have created because, as Josh has found, there are two distinct wavelengths of the RRWT.

More to come later!

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Collaboration vs Competition

Hello everyone!

In the world of weather, it's a dog eat dog world. Social media has expanded this rivalry ten fold. Over the past week we have seen some amazing things in the world of meteorology research. Dr. Victor Gensini and Al Marinaro published their work, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum, to the American Meteorological Society's Monthly Weather Review to much fanfare.  The global wind oscillation, or GWO as we call it, is another intraseasonal oscillation, or ISO,  that is utilized to predict the weather.

More and more research into ISO's are showing that there is a level of predictability in weather. Dr. Gensini, for instance, noted in the GWO research that there is success in predicting tornadoes and hail via the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, two weeks in advance. I plan on cite their research in our future ISO research that will be ongoing for quite a few years.

Dr. Gensini's work takes the ongoing research and bumps it up a notch.  His index, Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF), pushes the forecast ability to 3 weeks.  Keep this in mind...3 weeks, or 21 days.  The research team of Renken, Herman, Bradshaw, and Lupo have been focused on case studies while our own index for both the BSR and severe weather are on the table in the near future. Our research has been along the same lines as Mr. Gensini's...just a tad different. Remember one of my favorite catch phrases is "It's all related!". Instead of utilizing the MJO and GWO specifically, we took a slice of the globe and created correlation points as to quantify it. 

I am giving huge kudos to Dr. Gensini and Al Marinaro for bringing pattern recognition into the lime light.  Organic forecasting, as our research team calls it, shows just how important the government, energy, emergency management, and agriculture industries would benefit.

Now..to the competition part of this post.  It seems that there are some meteorologist who claim that both his research and ours are part of his "pattern".

A professor from the College of DuPage posted an article last week saying he thinks the atmosphere might be cycling and can be used to forecast tornadoes.  Well that is what I have been working on for years and have been able to forecast severe weather events pretty well.  At least other meteorologist are starting to notice their is a cycle going on in the atmosphere.  Even a few weather enthusiasts have taken a small portion of the Heady Pattern and have been trying to prove it in their own way.  I am thrilled it is getting out there and starting to catch on a bit.

The basis of our research, when it comes down to it, is the Rossby Wave.  If one looks at the AMS Journals website, you will find over 9738 journals related to the Rossby Wave which was founded by Carl-Gustaf Rossby. This also shows that, contrary to what Mr. Heady says above, the research into a "cycling atmosphere" has been going on for decades. Not only that, but Mr. Heady has submitted no research papers to quantify his pattern recognition technique. All of our research has been well documented on the internet via the Accuweather.com forums, Josh's original blogspot, my KOPN FM Radio blog, and finally...this blogspot.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Weather Prediction Center Day 7 Scores

One of the patterns that I utilize while looking at the WPC day 7 maps is the ability to determine when the model and WPC scores will crash.

Some history...

WPC Day 7

On multiple occasions this winter in the Accuweather forums I have been able to discern the Day 7 maps verification by using a simple pattern recognition looking at the above chart. Depending on where we are in the pattern I will tell the members of the forum how close it will be to verifying.

Here I am telling everyone to remember my rule in the February 15th-17th storm thread. Later that same day, I posted the forecast vs reality in the February 24th-26th thread as to what happened for the January 23rd storm.

Finally, the next day I posted this regarding my thoughts on the storm track.
Based on my WPC anomaly correlation rule and the "big storms come NW", look for the slp to travel in a track between the Ukie and the WPC. aka...in Northern MS and AL, then just East of the aps roughly to DC up I-95.

Below are the forecast vs obs for the 2/23/16 - 2/24/16 storm...

Day 7 forecast for 2/24/16

Day 7 forecast for 2/25/16


Actual OBS for 2/24/16
Actual OBS for 2/25/16
As you can see, it was even farther NW that what I was envisioning. One can even make the argument that if we went by the "triple point", I was even closer than that.



During the same time that I made my call of the storm being more NW than what the WPC was showing, various outlets were calling for a coastal.

Joe Bastardi on February 18th was supporting the Euro packages for obvious reasons...

PARALLEL, CONTROL, ENSEMBLE MORE LIKE IT



Just in case someone goes and tells JB that I quoted him...just make sure that you give him my name and the nickname he gave me back in 2012...Missouri Mauler. Take a listen on July 29th, 2012 around the 45:00 minute mark.