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Saturday, February 20, 2016

January BSR Verification Time

Hello everyone!

Below you see a tweet regarding the BSR 500mb forecast for the period of February 14th-18th.

That forecast was made on February 2nd.

Look below for what happened during that time period.
Admittedly, the Rockies and West Coast did not perform that well.  That being said...the East Coast and Northern Mid-Atlantic was nailed.

Also, someone on social media got all but hurt regarding my last post on "Today's Severe Weather" and how it must be nice to hindcast.  Well...after the brief Facebook exchange that he had with me, I looked in my prior postings...lo and behold...

Severe Weather? Say It Isn't So! showed towards the middle my thoughts on the President's Day severe weather.

My personal opinion is that we will see severe weather in the Deep South during the President's Day storm based on these...

This was the Day 4-8 Outlook from the SPC issued on January 8th for the period ending 12z January 16th...
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN PERVASIVE OVER THE NRN
   GULF THROUGH AT LEAST D6...AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINED ACROSS
   THE GULF COAST STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AIR-MASS MODIFICATION
   OVER THE NRN GULF AND A RETURN TO ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
   SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL BECOMING NON-NEGLIGIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH
   DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. EVEN WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS TIME FRAME...OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT
   APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/08/2016

Then again...here is the period ending on 12z January 17th...

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL
   CONSISTENCY DAYS 4-5 /TUE-WED/...AS A LARGE UPPER VORTEX PREVAILS
   OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
   SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  DURING THIS TIME...WITH A POLAR
   AIRMASS IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

   MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES BEYOND DAY 5...AS THE FIRST OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WRN U.S. TROUGHS REACHES THE S CENTRAL CONUS.  THE
   EURO MAINTAINS A STRONGER FEATURE...PHASING IT WITH A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH ROUNDING THE SWRN SIDE OF THE ERN U.S. VORTEX AND THUS
   DRIVING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NRN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS INTO DAY
   6.  MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A MUCH WEAKER LOW
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THUS LITTLE RISK FOR GULF
   COAST CONVECTION.

   GIVEN THE LACK OF APPARENT RISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND DIVERGENT
   MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER...NO RISK AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
   FORECAST.
 
   ..GOSS.. 01/09/2016 

Both times they recognize that severe weather could be possible, but the risk are too low to be issued in the forecast.

Here are the storm reports for the 16th.

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