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Saturday, February 6, 2016

Mid-February Storm Continued...

Hello everyone!

Part of my research partners focus is the Recurring Rossby Wave Train. In fact, the #RRWT recently scored better than 70% for 86-90 day forecast in the 5 day average within 6° for Chicago, IL!


Now, if we apply the 50 day cycle to our mid-February storm we get the late December period.  Here are the 6-10 day cpc precipitation outlooks.


Compare that to the updated below...


Here are the prior 8-14 day...



Here are the current 8-14 day...

Below are the results from December as a whole for Columbia, MO...



I highlighted the period in question.  Note the 2.20", 1.14", and 1.15" rainfall totals.  We experienced some backside snow, but since the moisture had already moved East, nothing but a trace was recorded.

Once again, the potential for a significant storm is there for mid-February.

Here is Josh's #rrwt forecast maps for the period as they pertain to Surface Low Pressure...

The precipitable water anomalies also...


Note the "back-end" style of greens stretching from OKC northeast towards St. Louis and continuing into lower Indiana.  This is trademark snowfall look as seen in the example below...

The radar image above is a particular time stamp, so even though the graphics above it show a 5 day range, it has the same "pattern look" to it.


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