Thursday, February 25, 2016

Weather Prediction Center Day 7 Scores

One of the patterns that I utilize while looking at the WPC day 7 maps is the ability to determine when the model and WPC scores will crash.

Some history...

WPC Day 7

On multiple occasions this winter in the Accuweather forums I have been able to discern the Day 7 maps verification by using a simple pattern recognition looking at the above chart. Depending on where we are in the pattern I will tell the members of the forum how close it will be to verifying.

Here I am telling everyone to remember my rule in the February 15th-17th storm thread. Later that same day, I posted the forecast vs reality in the February 24th-26th thread as to what happened for the January 23rd storm.

Finally, the next day I posted this regarding my thoughts on the storm track.
Based on my WPC anomaly correlation rule and the "big storms come NW", look for the slp to travel in a track between the Ukie and the WPC. aka...in Northern MS and AL, then just East of the aps roughly to DC up I-95.

Below are the forecast vs obs for the 2/23/16 - 2/24/16 storm...

Day 7 forecast for 2/24/16

Day 7 forecast for 2/25/16


Actual OBS for 2/24/16
Actual OBS for 2/25/16
As you can see, it was even farther NW that what I was envisioning. One can even make the argument that if we went by the "triple point", I was even closer than that.



During the same time that I made my call of the storm being more NW than what the WPC was showing, various outlets were calling for a coastal.

Joe Bastardi on February 18th was supporting the Euro packages for obvious reasons...

PARALLEL, CONTROL, ENSEMBLE MORE LIKE IT



Just in case someone goes and tells JB that I quoted him...just make sure that you give him my name and the nickname he gave me back in 2012...Missouri Mauler. Take a listen on July 29th, 2012 around the 45:00 minute mark.


No comments:

Post a Comment