Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Collaboration vs Competition

Hello everyone!

In the world of weather, it's a dog eat dog world. Social media has expanded this rivalry ten fold. Over the past week we have seen some amazing things in the world of meteorology research. Dr. Victor Gensini and Al Marinaro published their work, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum, to the American Meteorological Society's Monthly Weather Review to much fanfare.  The global wind oscillation, or GWO as we call it, is another intraseasonal oscillation, or ISO,  that is utilized to predict the weather.

More and more research into ISO's are showing that there is a level of predictability in weather. Dr. Gensini, for instance, noted in the GWO research that there is success in predicting tornadoes and hail via the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, two weeks in advance. I plan on cite their research in our future ISO research that will be ongoing for quite a few years.

Dr. Gensini's work takes the ongoing research and bumps it up a notch.  His index, Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF), pushes the forecast ability to 3 weeks.  Keep this in mind...3 weeks, or 21 days.  The research team of Renken, Herman, Bradshaw, and Lupo have been focused on case studies while our own index for both the BSR and severe weather are on the table in the near future. Our research has been along the same lines as Mr. Gensini's...just a tad different. Remember one of my favorite catch phrases is "It's all related!". Instead of utilizing the MJO and GWO specifically, we took a slice of the globe and created correlation points as to quantify it. 

I am giving huge kudos to Dr. Gensini and Al Marinaro for bringing pattern recognition into the lime light.  Organic forecasting, as our research team calls it, shows just how important the government, energy, emergency management, and agriculture industries would benefit. the competition part of this post.  It seems that there are some meteorologist who claim that both his research and ours are part of his "pattern".

A professor from the College of DuPage posted an article last week saying he thinks the atmosphere might be cycling and can be used to forecast tornadoes.  Well that is what I have been working on for years and have been able to forecast severe weather events pretty well.  At least other meteorologist are starting to notice their is a cycle going on in the atmosphere.  Even a few weather enthusiasts have taken a small portion of the Heady Pattern and have been trying to prove it in their own way.  I am thrilled it is getting out there and starting to catch on a bit.

The basis of our research, when it comes down to it, is the Rossby Wave.  If one looks at the AMS Journals website, you will find over 9738 journals related to the Rossby Wave which was founded by Carl-Gustaf Rossby. This also shows that, contrary to what Mr. Heady says above, the research into a "cycling atmosphere" has been going on for decades. Not only that, but Mr. Heady has submitted no research papers to quantify his pattern recognition technique. All of our research has been well documented on the internet via the forums, Josh's original blogspot, my KOPN FM Radio blog, and finally...this blogspot.

No comments:

Post a Comment