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Thursday, March 31, 2016

SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.


Match that up with Josh's January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.  

Look at what the BSR is showing...


One might look at the above maps and think...how the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such...The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further...the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.

GFS


Euro

On a side note...here is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th...




Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support...

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini's research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

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