Tuesday, November 22, 2016

RRWT: What are the Differences Between the Ensemble Members?

Techniques used for generating the US ESRL style maps

R+ uses the multivariate correlation wave(s) to select oscillation analogs. rA uses the Regional (there are 9 regions) and the entire CONUS correlation average wave to select oscillation analogs.

R+ selects the top 1, 2, 9, 10 daily correlations and also uses the 15 and 30 day correlation mode when selecting analogs.

*In the heatmap, the far left columns are the power of the regions in the top 10 correlations. Heatmap

rA selects the analogs from the Regional and CONUS average. However, if the Regional and CONUS average is not within a certain present oscillation threshold (r>0.65) and the top 10 correlations for the Regional and CONUS do not include 30% phase +/-4 of the average then it selects best oscillation from the past 13 months.

*In the heatmap, the far left columns are the power of the regions in the top 10 correlations. Heatmap

Techniques used for generating the US Local point Charts and Tables

----CHARTS----
----CHARTS----
----CHARTS----

M1 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/oxOp
// rMultivariate Regional average

M2 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/xoOp
// rMultivariate Regional average

M3 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/oxOp
// rMultivariate CONUS average

M4 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/oxOp
// (M1, M2, M3)*0.33

---

Me PRECIPITATION CHANCE
:: DPc = (M1 Fp + M2 Fp + M3 Fp)*.33

---

Me SNOWFALL CHANCE
:: DSc = (M1 Fs + M2 Fs + M3 Fs)*.33

Me SNOWFALL INCHES
:: DMeS = IF average of M1, M2, and M3 Snow inches > 1 THEN M average

----TABLE----
----TABLE----
----TABLE----

M1 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/oxOp
// rMultivariate Regional average

M2 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/xoOp
// rMultivariate Regional average

M3 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/oxOp
// rMultivariate CONUS average

M4 TEMPERATURE
:: DT = St/oxOp
// (M1, M2, M3)*0.33

---

Me PRECIPITATION CHANCE
:: DPC = (M1 Fp + M2 Fp + M3 Fp)*.33

M1 PRECIPITATION
:: DP = (oxOp Sp + xoOp Sp)*0.5 per component
// rMultivariate Regional average

M2 PRECIPITATION
:: DP = (oxOp Sp + xoOp Sp)*0.5 per component
// rMultivariate Regional average

M3 PRECIPITATION
:: DP = (oxOp Sp + xoOp Sp)*0.5 per component
// rMultivariate CONUS average

---

Me SNOWFALL CHANCE
:: DPC = (M1 Fs + M2 Fs + M3 Fs)*.33

M1 SNOWFALL
:: DS = IF (DT<Tx) THEN ((oxOp (Sp1*Mp) + xoOp (Sp1*Mp))*Fp)*Sr) per component
// rMultivariate Regional average

M2 SNOWFALL
:: DS = IF (DT<Tx) THEN ((oxOp (Sp1*Mp) + xoOp (Sp1*Mp))*Fp)*Sr) per component
// rMultivariate Regional average

M3 SNOWFALL
:: DS = IF (DT<Tx) THEN ((oxOp (Sp1*Mp) + xoOp (Sp1*Mp))*Fp)*Sr) per component
// rMultivariate CONUS average

----LEGEND----
----LEGEND----
----LEGEND----

:: = Product equation
// = Oscillation base
Me = Ensemble mean
Mx = Member of ensemble
DT = Daily temperature
DP = Daily precipitation
DPc = Daily precipitation chance
DS = Daily snowfall
DSc = Daily snowfall chance (of the precipitation that falls, % chance it will be all frozen)
DMes = Daily snowfall inches if average M1, M2, M3 snowfall inches > 1
Tx = Temperature at which to determine snow**
St = Sum of temperature
Sp = Sum of precipitation
Sp1 = Sum of precipitation capped at 1
Fp = Frequency of precipitation
Fs = Frequency of snowfall
oxOp = Present oscillation period
xoOP = Previous oscillation period
xxOp = Average Present and Previous oscillation period
Mp = Monthly percent of annual 30 year avg
Sr = Snow to water ratio factor**

**Tx
Currently 32

**Sr
<=34 Forecast Mean Temp >=28,10
<=27 Forecast Mean Temp >=20,15
<=19 Forecast Mean Temp >=15,20
<=14 Forecast Mean Temp >=10,30
<=09 Forecast Mean Temp >=00,40

----END----
----END----
----END----

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Techniques used for generating the AU, EA, and EU ESRL style maps

rMultivariate 1 uses the present oscillation multivariate correlation wave(s) to select oscillation analogs. rMultivariate 2 uses the previous oscillation multivariate correlation wave(s) to select oscillation analogs. rMultivariate 1 + 2 represents the analogs of the two methods blended together.

rMultivariate 1 selects the top 1, 2, 9, 10 daily correlations and also uses the 15 and 30 day correlation mode of the present oscillation period when selecting analogs.

rMultivariate 2 selects the top 1, 2, 9, 10 daily correlations and also uses the 15 and 30 day correlation mode of the previous oscillation period when selecting analogs.

*No average wave calculations are used in these methods.

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Change Log
- 20161122 / added ESRL style mapping analog selection techinques
- 20161216 / ESRL mapping -- integrated R1 and R2, R1 and rA, and situational rA
- 20161221 / point trending -- M1 R+1 Top 1, M2 R+2 Top 1, M3 rA, M4 avg of M1, M2, M3
- 20170101 / point trending -- M1 R+ Avg oxOp, M2 R+ Avg xoOP, M3 CONUS Avg oxOP, M4 avg of M1, M2, M3

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Please leave a comment for questions or suggestions on the material presented. Thanks for reading.



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