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Saturday, January 30, 2016

Testing: Severe Weather Pattern Projection Based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule

We generated a small time sample of potential Spring severe weather pattern based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule, also know as the Organic Forecasting technique called the "trifecta". To simplify the write-up the RRWT hindsight dates are linked to their corresponding H5 map. For the daily SPC storm reports go here and change the date in the url. The projection dates are listed below the chart and are bolded.

The chart below shows the regional RRWT oscillation period average. The oscillation period average is used to project the initial future date that is expected to hold similar weather pattern ingredients as previous oscillation period weather patterns, +/- 3 days. The projections will be maintained once the projection date is ~30 days from realization. Methods used to confirm original projection will consist of modeled BSR(~30 days), current RRWT oscillation period(~30 days), observed BSR(~20 days), modeled TR(~16 days), observed TR(~8 days), and GFS/GEM/EURO model guidance(~3 days).



Hindsight dates
09/08-11/05-12/23
09/18-11/11-12/30
09/27-11/16-01/09

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days
12/23-02/13-04/05-05/27 (Ref)
12/30-02/20-04/12-06/03 (Ref)
01/09-03/01-04/22-06/13 (Ref)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let us know.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Severe Weather Impacts Increasing

While most of the attention started turning towards what would become of #Jonas, the #BSR was showing something else in the wings.



The above graphic was from 12JAN16 in the Pacific.  Here you can see a very dynamic situation unfolding for the time period around 29JAN16 based on a lag time of 18 days. If our server hadn't been maxed out, I'd be able to show you that the constant in the lag time is just that...it's not constant.  Just like everything else in the atmosphere, the "eddy" moves fluidly and changes not only in a "regional" scale, but also in a CONUS scale.  Remember, the original premise of the BSR was that the correlation is between 17-21 days as a rule of thumb.

Here is the latest 6-8 day analog guidance provided by the CIPS, valid 03FEB16 00z.


Again, since our ability to host the maps is currently down, I cannot show you the progression of our maps. That being said, I'm certain that the corresponding graphics would look somewhat like this...

Our Apologies

Hello everyone!

It seems that the popularity created by the 22JAN16 storm, known as the Black Knight Blizzard on the Accuweather forums, has slammed our server.





Our bandwidth has been exceeded as such and we are in the process of fixing the issue.



This once again shows the importance of why I have a gofundme campaign.  This research is not funded in any shape or form except through Josh Herman and my own funds.  Please take a look at my campaign link on the side and consider donating!

Monday, January 11, 2016

Welcome From AMS 2016!

Hello everyone!

To say that this experience is something that I will never forget is an understatement!  My "stash" of business cards are already being depleted and I am expecting ~20 people to attend my presentation on Thursday at 2:30pm in room 245.  Those are just from face to face interactions to boot!

Off to Ocean Feedbacks and Atmospheric Precursor Signals Associated with Eastward-propagating and Eastward-deaying Tropical Intraseasonal Convection.


Thursday, January 7, 2016

CIPS Analogs Hitting On Deep South Severe Weather

So I grabbed the CIPS Analog set that utilizes the NAM as it pertains to severe weather.

Top 15 Analogs with at least 5 severe weather reports within 110km grid

 Top 15 Analogs with at least 10 severe weather reports within 110km grid


Wednesday, January 6, 2016

When Modeling Agrees

Earlier today, Ian Livingston of Capital Weather Gang, tweets an ESRL map showing the European EPS 11-15 analogs and how they looked.

This is what the Bering Sea Rule showed on the 4th of January for the same time period.



That is the joy of #organicforecasting!

Sunday, January 3, 2016

More Support For Mid-Month Cold Snap

Another great resource that I use is from a good friend of mine, Al Marinaro, or @wxmidwest.

His models utilize the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast and comprise a set of analogs.

Here is what he has for the week 2 period.


Here is what the BSR showed on 31DEC15.


Just showing support to the Bering Sea Rule goes beyond what we claim.

Friday, January 1, 2016

GFS Causing A Stir

People in the weather community...well, those on the East Coast, are going nuts because they saw this on the 00z 02JAN16 GFS run.


Here is the OBS from the BSR on 23DEC15 with a forecast date of 11JAN16 based on 19 day lag time.






The next OBS is this.