Tuesday, August 23, 2016

The Recurring Rossby Wave Train

The OFM has adopted the RRWT.

Introduction
Establish numerical outputs of recurring atmospheric states. Further explore the interrelated nature of planetary and synoptic waves via statistical modeling. Reflect this temporal and spatial behavior of Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude weather patterns based on the empirical data.

Data Derivation
Gather data from radiosonde stations inside the conus. See figure 1. Manage the 500mb data for a single point, region, or entire conus. See figure 2. Seek top correlation in a 10-90 day range. Calculate average, mode, mean, and rank. See external blog post. Utilize the correlated oscillation periods to generate the local point trends and the 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25 day forecast composite maps. See figure 3.

Note: The fundamental seasonal ~90 day wave conforms to a multitude of waves (harmonics) defining the average (2nd harmonic), mode, mean, and top 10 ranked amplitudes (3rd, 4th, 5th harmonic, etc). However, the oscillation periods are not a direct conversion, but an arithmetic means of correlation. See figure 4, 5, and 6.

Testing
Recurring Rossby Wave Train (click here for Forecasts and Analysis)

Please leave a comment for questions or suggestions on the material presented.