Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Forecast Rodeo Comparisons

Hello everyone!

The team received this email today regarding the Forecast Rodeo

I am looking forward to the 'official' scores mid-month, but in the meantime, let's look at how we fared.

Here are the forecast that we provided the rodeo with on 4/04/17 for the period of 4/18-5/1.

Accumulated Precipitation in millimeters

Average Temperature in Celsius

A few different looks at the results...

Precipitation in inches

Temperature in Fahrenheit

Now...since the Western Region Climate Center doesn't extend into the Plains, I've included the complete US maps below. Otherwise, I'd have to include 2 of each from the High Plains & Southern regions.



Due to the difference in data, mm vs in & (C) vs (F), note the patterns instead...unless you are fine with converting each.

The evaluation criteria information for said rodeo is listed below...
Evaluation criteria
Forecast skill will be evaluated for temperature and precipitation separately since the drivers responsible for prediction of these variables are different and the subsequent skill level is also expected to be different. Moreover, the 15-28 day and 29-42 day periods will be evaluated individually for similar reasons. Winning forecasts must outperform CFSv2 and damped persistence forecasts (see definitions below). Specifically, skill will be evaluated individually for temperature and precipitation for weeks 3-4 and weeks 5-6 as the highest skill over the competition domain, averaged over the entire competition time period. To be prize eligible, Solvers must also demonstrate historical skill of statistical significance that is equal to or greater than that of the CFSv2 through submission of a hind-cast analysis described below.
So, with the above in mind, let's look at the CPC Weeks 3&4 forecast. Yes, I'm familiar that it's not the CFS Week 3&4, but I couldn't grab the archived forecast.

Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

Temperature Anomaly Forecast


The resulting anomalies...