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Thursday, October 19, 2017

Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule Explanations

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first "heads up" in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn't come true.

Forecast thread:

OBS thread:


Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.



...and the wiki on both storms...



Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite "JDism's" on the forum is "It's all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it's all about!" or "We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!"

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this...not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I've taught them.

OSNW3 Blog

http://www.scmweather.com/

As for the Typhoon Rule...this rule has been around for decades.
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a277210.pdf

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren't seasonally dependant like typhoons are...they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.


A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques...

WPC 3-7 Day Lower 48 Forecast


WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast


Ocean Prediction Center Pacific Tab


Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS:
Euro:

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View

@crankywxguy maps

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