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Friday, November 3, 2017

Bering Sea Rule Case Study Moment

Hello everyone!

I noticed a tweet from the BAMwx twitter account which reminded people that even though a -WPO configuration will provide for short term cooler weather, the long term outlook isn't as pretty.



As a reminder, here are the EPO/WPO combinations at the 500mb level.

 

Upon seeing the tweet I went ahead and looked up the Bering Sea Rule aspect 19 days earlier below.
Shemya Island is our Springfield, MO and Kodiak Island is our Bangor, ME correlations. So...let's place the two ESRL maps side by side...


Note how in the CONUS ESRL map has AN (Above Normal) heights just North of the Dakota's diminishing as it works South and the BN (Below Normal) heights to the SE of Maine. Those mimic what happened 19 days earlier in the Bering Sea.

Throwing in my SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) research and this is what I came up with 19 days after a 3 day drop of 20 points! Yes...I know it was 17.15, but it also mimics the one day drop of 10 points in our research with AN over the top and BN off the East Coast.

20pt drop in three days

10pt drop in one day