Tuesday, January 31, 2017

The Bering Sea Rule Is Gaining Attention

Hello everyone!

First, and foremost, I'd like to take this opportunity to apologize for not updating the blog as much as I need to.  My full-time job at the Veterans Affairs Hospital has me working 20 hours of overtime a week so that cuts down on my ability to look over things.

In 2013, I got in contact with Accuweather's long range forecasting team and established some good friendships within the company outside of that said team.  One friend that I still speak with on a regular basis is Mark. Mark is no longer at Accuweather, but writes articles for Weatherboy.com.  For the past 1.5 months, I have contributed my thoughts to his articles located below.

December 21st, 2016

Looking Beyond a Two Week Forecast


January 3rd, 2017


January 9th, 2017


January 19th, 2017


We were discussing on FB Messenger that a new article will be created in a week for multiple severe weather signals that we are seeing via the Bering Sea Rule, Southern Oscillation Index Delta, and Recurring Rossby Wave Train.

Also, take a gander at searching on Twitter for people utilizing the #bsr to forecast between 17-21 days in advance! Those out east are starting to catch on, especially when it comes to the threat for the period between February 8th-10th!  The only bad part is you have to weed through the other hits for #bsr.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Citizen Science and the Organic Forecasting Method

Citizen science (CS) is aiding in the betterment of the Organic Forecasting Method and OFM guidance products. There are a handful of people utilizing the the array of products offered by the OFM. This interaction has led to multiple improvements over the past several months. Some examples are listed below.

Product Enhancements
@dlhmnwx30 recommended a change for a less volatile snow outlook. His suggestions led to a stable short term snow climate projection via the Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT).

@Met_mdclark recommended the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) teleconnection surface map in conjunction with the 500MB map and @crankywxguy recommended the top-down, left to right approach with presentation. This change has proven to be quite exciting.

Methodology Verification
@WesternWeather recommended the BSR verification plots be put back onto the website. While this verification was happening locally, to get it back into the public eye was crucial.

@jacquesmainguy performed correlation and t-test on the Southern Oscillation Index Delta (SOID) and provided a gateway to a verification method. (Tweet)

The participation is appreciated and keeps this project and research fun. Please leave a comment for questions or suggestions on the material presented. Thanks for reading.