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Friday, November 9, 2018

The Accuweather Forums of Old Is No More

Yesterday, the Accuweather Forums were hit by a coordinated spam attack.

Even though this spam attack was "a typical" one that the forums have dealt with over the years, it comes on the heels of an agreement with Cantor Futures Exchange, L.P. to basically "save" the forums. Why on earth would this be needed might you ask? The legacy hardware ran utilized by Accuweather reached the end of it's service life years ago. The powers that be decided that, despite a membership of 14,208, they would not upgrade it. They claimed it would take too much money to implement.

Earlier this year, the founder of the forums posted a topic stating that the forums would be closing. So, the members leaped into action, afraid that our community would be lost in the web and forced to join other forums that have had a history of being hostile towards us. A member of the forum quickly developed his own weather forum based off of new hardware and software despite Accuweather claiming that it took too much money. This forum is located at https://wxdisco.com/forums. The higher ups saw a mass exodus from the forums and had the founder remove the closing topic and anything related to pointing members to our new found home.

It saddens me to see it come to this. In late November of 2008, I was approached by the core group of Northeast/Mid-Atlantic moderators to become the only moderator for the Plains/Midwest/Ohio Valley threads. 10 years of being a moderator on one of the most popular weather forums was an experience to say the least.  Trivial things like them not following the guidelines that they signed would produce a moderation period to make sure that they stopped the style of posting, or be banned for continuing. Multiple times during those 10 years I received messages from those said people where they threatened to come after my family, attack my integrity, & be called every name in the book. 

If you ask my ex-wife, she would tell you that my dedication to this forum was part of our demise. During the winter, there were multiple times that we had over 1,000 members discussing a major Nor'easter impacting the region. These periods would require me to tend to members "reporting" each other for post that didn't follow our guidelines. I can remember multiple occasions that I would spend a week answering the said reports and making sure that the threads were a well oiled machine.

The dedication of the forum founder, 'weathermatrix', and our team of supermoderators, are a mere afterthought in the eyes of the management. They have sold the forums to the devil and, instead of encouraging discussion about the weather, encourage gambling on the weather. Yes...the forums are still alive and we can look at the historical threads and remember the relationships that have developed from them. To this day, I have friends on Facebook and Twitter who I'm in consistent contact with.

Finally...I do not fault the founder of the forums one bit. He was stuck between a rock and a hard place with the management.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

November 5th, 2018 Severe Weather and Daily SOI Research

Hello everyone!

Last night, there were 94 unfiltered severe weather reports mostly located in Tennessee.


Here are the Fall El NiƱo Severe Weather Composites used for the latest Daily SOI research.
Below are the "analog dates" that I have developed based on the Daily SOI variability.

Daily SOI rise of 20pts centered on October 13th.


The corresponding composites...



Daily SOI rise of 20pts centered on October 29th.


The corresponding composites...



Daily SOI drop of 20pts centered on November 3rd.

The corresponding composites...


00z 06NOV18 32km NAM for 7pm last night...

As the daily SOI research showed, we started to see the pattern back on the 13th and followed up on the 29th.

Below are the Euro and GFS depictions from the 00z 30OCT18 suites.



Again...I urge caution at trusting those who have a 18 day lag time chart for daily SOI changes as it doesn't take into account the jet stream changes between ENSO and seasons. Those charts wouldn't have seen the severe weather until November 3rd due to it dropping because they always associate severe weather with a drop.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Late October Nor'easter?

Hello everyone!

I'm seeing a few twitter accounts bumping their chest about the probability of a late October Nor'easter. The Bering Sea Rule had this probability back on October 7th.

I've actually been watching the models for the past couple of days.

12z run of 10OCT18


The next day had a system in the Northern Gulf just begging to hit the SE and move NE...


Compare that to what the BSR had on the 6th!


We are still a tad early for the East Asia Rule, but the models show the potential is there. The first graphic is from the EAR map page for purposes of the overlay.


Here is the Euro from yesterday's 00z run.


A few GFS options...

12z 12OCT18


00z 14OCT18


06z 14OCT18


00z 13OCT18 CMC just missed the connection to bring it up the coast...


How about the daily Southern Oscillation Index method? At the beginning of the month we saw a spike in both 3 day 20pt and one day 10pt...


Day 24 and day 25 of the 10pt rise...ummm....look familiar? Wow?!



Look at the lower heights over the SE on day 25 via my 20pt composites...



So, as you can see, the potential for a Nor'easter has been teleconnected for a few days via OFM.

Monday, October 1, 2018

Early October Severe Weather

Hello all,

Something that I have done for quite a few years now is utilize the OrganicForecasting method, or OFM, to predict severe weather.  Below you will find the composite of SPC high & medium risk days during a neutral fall seasons between 1991-2016.

Large trough in the lee of the Rockies and Western Plains with a anomalous ridge centered over Montreal, Canada.

The BSR website showed the same depiction. Trough West with SW Flow aloft an East Ridge with a hint of NE trough.

Next up is the daily Southern Oscillation Index. The composite below is for day 14 after a 20pt drop of three days centered on 22SEP18.

With day 0 on the 23rd, I get this with my spreadsheet...

Now, the composites for Days 14-16...



Day 16 gets muted because immediately following, we had a rise with day 0 being the 26th of September.

Now, look at the EAR depiction...

A trough west and ridging East with nice vorticity moving from Texas into the Tennessee Valley.

Latest modeling...

01OCT18 12z GFS

00z 01OCT18 ECMWF


So, I will leave you with how various aspects of OFM showed the signals of severe weather and can be an asset to a forecaster.

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Late September - Early October Autumn Shot? Yep...Organic Forecasting Had It!

Hello all,

#wxtwitter and Facebook is a buzz in a rush to act like they were first to call the cooler period come late September and early October.

The first hint of a pattern change was back on August 17th via the extended CPC analog method that I utilize.
Gone are the AN green, yellow, and orange's from the map and the normal whites are taking over an expansive area of the Eastern USA with blue hues in the Northeast.

The next week the maps flipped back to a warm Eastern US with a trough out West.
The current 5 day depiction of the models is that the trough is further East than the above, but the basis of a warmer East had merit.

So let's follow up with the next week analog forecast, August 31st.
Wow! Talk about a huge signal of BN encompassing most of the East for the first part of October!

During this time, the daily SOI was fairly stagnant.

Here is the link for September's BSR. When I attempted to create an animated gif file it didn't upload correctly and that's quite a few pictures to place in the blog. Pay attention to the period between the 23rd and 30th. High pressure in charge over the East while an ULL drifts South towards the Gulf Coast.

The NAEFS from September 15th had this with BN on the West Coast/Northern Plains and AN over the East with normal over Texas...


Ironically enough, the CMC has lower anomalies over Texas growing by the 30th.

EPS had it a few days earlier on the 27th...

Just as the models have the orientation of the ridge-trough-ridge differently, the BSR has the same issue.

During the same time period of BSR initiation, the SOI experienced a dramatic drop in both 1 day and 3 day periods from September 4th - September 7th.

I've seen some attempt to utilize #organicforecasting "generic" #dailySOI research in an attempt to forecast the weather 18 days in advance via a chart. There are multiple issues with said chart. For instance, the chart doesn't take into account how there are changes in the atmosphere based on the ENSO, seasonal jet changes, and whether there is a 20pt drop in 3 days or a 10pt drop in one day. Per my research composites, the result is this during a Neutral Fall 21 days after a significant drop...
Look familiar? How about comparing it to the NWS CPC 6-10 day issued today?


When the EAR maps come to play, they do very well in highlighting the maps above considering the lead time. In fact, they mimic the maps above almost to a 't'. The EAR has a strong ULL pushing South from Mongolia into Manchuria. Our overlay has this in the Upper Plains/Midwest region. Also, note the vorticity moving towards Hangzhou and Shanghai which is Texas in the overlay.

Now, I'll bring the Week 5-6 analog to show some relationship...

Note the AN over the Rockies and BN stretching from West Texas to the Northeast. Have a gander at the NAEFS from today...

Yes, I'm aware of the dates not ending at the same time, but again, it's pattern recognition. Here is the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook to boot.


Again...anyone claiming that my #organicforecasting is 1:1 relationship needs to stop.

Interpretation is key and "we sniff out the pattern and picking out the right pattern is what it's all about!"