Something that I have done for quite a few years now is utilize the OrganicForecasting method, or OFM, to predict severe weather. Below you will find the composite of SPC high & medium risk days during a neutral fall seasons between 1991-2016.
Large trough in the lee of the Rockies and Western Plains with a anomalous ridge centered over Montreal, Canada.
The BSR website showed the same depiction. Trough West with SW Flow aloft an East Ridge with a hint of NE trough.
Next up is the daily Southern Oscillation Index. The composite below is for day 14 after a 20pt drop of three days centered on 22SEP18.
Now, the composites for Days 14-16...
Now, look at the EAR depiction...
A trough west and ridging East with nice vorticity moving from Texas into the Tennessee Valley.
01OCT18 12z GFS
00z 01OCT18 ECMWF
So, I will leave you with how various aspects of OFM showed the signals of severe weather and can be an asset to a forecaster.