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Sunday, October 14, 2018

Late October Nor'easter?

Hello everyone!

I'm seeing a few twitter accounts bumping their chest about the probability of a late October Nor'easter. The Bering Sea Rule had this probability back on October 7th.

I've actually been watching the models for the past couple of days.

12z run of 10OCT18


The next day had a system in the Northern Gulf just begging to hit the SE and move NE...


Compare that to what the BSR had on the 6th!


We are still a tad early for the East Asia Rule, but the models show the potential is there. The first graphic is from the EAR map page for purposes of the overlay.


Here is the Euro from yesterday's 00z run.


A few GFS options...

12z 12OCT18


00z 14OCT18


06z 14OCT18


00z 13OCT18 CMC just missed the connection to bring it up the coast...


How about the daily Southern Oscillation Index method? At the beginning of the month we saw a spike in both 3 day 20pt and one day 10pt...


Day 24 and day 25 of the 10pt rise...ummm....look familiar? Wow?!



Look at the lower heights over the SE on day 25 via my 20pt composites...



So, as you can see, the potential for a Nor'easter has been teleconnected for a few days via OFM.

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