Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Severe Weather Impacts Increasing

While most of the attention started turning towards what would become of #Jonas, the #BSR was showing something else in the wings.

The above graphic was from 12JAN16 in the Pacific.  Here you can see a very dynamic situation unfolding for the time period around 29JAN16 based on a lag time of 18 days. If our server hadn't been maxed out, I'd be able to show you that the constant in the lag time is just's not constant.  Just like everything else in the atmosphere, the "eddy" moves fluidly and changes not only in a "regional" scale, but also in a CONUS scale.  Remember, the original premise of the BSR was that the correlation is between 17-21 days as a rule of thumb.

Here is the latest 6-8 day analog guidance provided by the CIPS, valid 03FEB16 00z.

Again, since our ability to host the maps is currently down, I cannot show you the progression of our maps. That being said, I'm certain that the corresponding graphics would look somewhat like this...

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