Thursday, March 31, 2016

SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.

Match that up with Josh's January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.  

Look at what the BSR is showing...

One might look at the above maps and the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such...The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further...the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.



On a side is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th...

Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support...

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini's research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Severe Weather To Open April

Hello everyone!

As stated earlier in the January 30th blog regarding our Recurring Rossby Wave Train Severe Weather Test, the beginning of April was highlighted.

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days
12/23-02/13-04/05-05/27 (Ref)

The BSR is showing this a tad bit early as the potential is showing up on April 3rd.

This time period was also highlighted on the CFS forecast initiated back on March 4th. Note the yellow 'x' on the 4th. That being said, the period from the 4th until the 9th in the most recent initiation looks good too.

 When you click on the 'x', it yields this.

To go along with the earlier statement regarding the period between the 4th and the 9th...check out this 21-25 day 500mb forecast via the #rrwt.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

When Organic Forecasting Sees The Future Months In Advance

Part of Josh's Recurring Rossby Wave Train research was a severe weather experiment first posted on January 30th. The Storm Prediction Center is utilizing a new experimental forecasting technique based on the Climate Forecasting System. Looking below you can see the results of the model from 1/26/16 until 3/10/16. Here is the link to said product below.

Cross reference the above with the dates that Josh provided on January 30th.
Foresight dates using OP of 52 days
12/23-02/13-04/05-05/27 (Ref)
12/30-02/20-04/12-06/03 (Ref)
01/09-03/01-04/22-06/13 (Ref)

 Now, as you can see above, the forecast on March 8th was the first to highlight the period between April 12th through April 21st. With Josh's experiment being documented on January 30th, that was a 38 day lead time until the CFS model hit on that period! Going further...that is a 73 and 83 day lead time for severe weather pattern recognition. That being said...I am going to introduce you to one of the graphics that Dr. Lupo created for our research paper based on Autocorrelation of the PNA.

As you can see, we have spikes at ~52 and ~76 days. This is just one of the series graphics that we have created because, as Josh has found, there are two distinct wavelengths of the RRWT.

More to come later!

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Collaboration vs Competition

Hello everyone!

In the world of weather, it's a dog eat dog world. Social media has expanded this rivalry ten fold. Over the past week we have seen some amazing things in the world of meteorology research. Dr. Victor Gensini and Al Marinaro published their work, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum, to the American Meteorological Society's Monthly Weather Review to much fanfare.  The global wind oscillation, or GWO as we call it, is another intraseasonal oscillation, or ISO,  that is utilized to predict the weather.

More and more research into ISO's are showing that there is a level of predictability in weather. Dr. Gensini, for instance, noted in the GWO research that there is success in predicting tornadoes and hail via the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, two weeks in advance. I plan on cite their research in our future ISO research that will be ongoing for quite a few years.

Dr. Gensini's work takes the ongoing research and bumps it up a notch.  His index, Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF), pushes the forecast ability to 3 weeks.  Keep this in mind...3 weeks, or 21 days.  The research team of Renken, Herman, Bradshaw, and Lupo have been focused on case studies while our own index for both the BSR and severe weather are on the table in the near future. Our research has been along the same lines as Mr. Gensini's...just a tad different. Remember one of my favorite catch phrases is "It's all related!". Instead of utilizing the MJO and GWO specifically, we took a slice of the globe and created correlation points as to quantify it. 

I am giving huge kudos to Dr. Gensini and Al Marinaro for bringing pattern recognition into the lime light.  Organic forecasting, as our research team calls it, shows just how important the government, energy, emergency management, and agriculture industries would benefit. the competition part of this post.  It seems that there are some meteorologist who claim that both his research and ours are part of his "pattern".

A professor from the College of DuPage posted an article last week saying he thinks the atmosphere might be cycling and can be used to forecast tornadoes.  Well that is what I have been working on for years and have been able to forecast severe weather events pretty well.  At least other meteorologist are starting to notice their is a cycle going on in the atmosphere.  Even a few weather enthusiasts have taken a small portion of the Heady Pattern and have been trying to prove it in their own way.  I am thrilled it is getting out there and starting to catch on a bit.

The basis of our research, when it comes down to it, is the Rossby Wave.  If one looks at the AMS Journals website, you will find over 9738 journals related to the Rossby Wave which was founded by Carl-Gustaf Rossby. This also shows that, contrary to what Mr. Heady says above, the research into a "cycling atmosphere" has been going on for decades. Not only that, but Mr. Heady has submitted no research papers to quantify his pattern recognition technique. All of our research has been well documented on the internet via the forums, Josh's original blogspot, my KOPN FM Radio blog, and finally...this blogspot.