Thursday, October 19, 2017

Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule Explanations

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first "heads up" in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn't come true.

Forecast thread:

OBS thread:

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

...and the wiki on both storms...

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite "JDism's" on the forum is "It's all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it's all about!" or "We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!"

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this...not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I've taught them.

OSNW3 Blog

As for the Typhoon Rule...this rule has been around for decades.

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren't seasonally dependant like typhoons are...they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques...

WPC 3-7 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View

@crankywxguy maps

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Where Do We Go From Here?

Hello everyone!

It's been a pretty wild summer for me and I can imagine with the other research projects I have going it will only get worse.

  1. The website has been dissolved. The radio station is under new management and have developed a new website dedicated to our independent contribution in the community. That being said, a new "weather" section will be up and running soon.
  2. The SOI research is coming along nicely with 33 folders dedicated to ENSO/Season/SOI Fall or Drop. Within those folders I have created ESRL maps spanning 25 days from a 20 point and 10 point rise or drop.
  3. I'm still working on a new Pacific index that could help with ENSO relationships to the lower 48 weather.
  4. Josh's RRWT, Recurring Rossby Wave Train, submissions to the Forecast Rodeo have been doing very well.  There were 118 teams to start with and now they have narrowed it down to the top 5 at the half-way mark. We are optimistic that once the fall and winter weather starts hitting the forecast regions that the RRWT will shine more than the other competitors. He is outperforming the "benchmarks" of 'Damped Persistence' and the 'CFS' in both Week 3-4 & 5-6 Precipitation and beating 'Damped Persistence' in Week 5-6 Temperatures! I've been attempting to contribute via a different sub-seasonal method that had been doing very well utilizing CPC 6-10 & 8-14 day analogs. The issue is that ESRL maps only provide 'Precipitation Rate' or 'Precipitable Water' as options and not the 'Accumulated Precipitation' that we need for the contest. That conversion is giving me fits to say the least. 
  5. Twitter handle @crankywxguy has taken over the creation of our BSR maps and has done an amazing job with it! you can see above, we have quite a few items that are coming along and are looking forward to their results as time comes along!