Sunday, October 15, 2017

Where Do We Go From Here?

Hello everyone!

It's been a pretty wild summer for me and I can imagine with the other research projects I have going it will only get worse.

  1. The website has been dissolved. The radio station is under new management and have developed a new website dedicated to our independent contribution in the community. That being said, a new "weather" section will be up and running soon.
  2. The SOI research is coming along nicely with 33 folders dedicated to ENSO/Season/SOI Fall or Drop. Within those folders I have created ESRL maps spanning 25 days from a 20 point and 10 point rise or drop.
  3. I'm still working on a new Pacific index that could help with ENSO relationships to the lower 48 weather.
  4. Josh's RRWT, Recurring Rossby Wave Train, submissions to the Forecast Rodeo have been doing very well.  There were 118 teams to start with and now they have narrowed it down to the top 5 at the half-way mark. We are optimistic that once the fall and winter weather starts hitting the forecast regions that the RRWT will shine more than the other competitors. He is outperforming the "benchmarks" of 'Damped Persistence' and the 'CFS' in both Week 3-4 & 5-6 Precipitation and beating 'Damped Persistence' in Week 5-6 Temperatures! I've been attempting to contribute via a different sub-seasonal method that had been doing very well utilizing CPC 6-10 & 8-14 day analogs. The issue is that ESRL maps only provide 'Precipitation Rate' or 'Precipitable Water' as options and not the 'Accumulated Precipitation' that we need for the contest. That conversion is giving me fits to say the least. 
  5. Twitter handle @crankywxguy has taken over the creation of our BSR maps and has done an amazing job with it! you can see above, we have quite a few items that are coming along and are looking forward to their results as time comes along!

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