Thursday, September 20, 2018

Late September - Early October Autumn Shot? Yep...Organic Forecasting Had It!

Hello all,

#wxtwitter and Facebook is a buzz in a rush to act like they were first to call the cooler period come late September and early October.

The first hint of a pattern change was back on August 17th via the extended CPC analog method that I utilize.
Gone are the AN green, yellow, and orange's from the map and the normal whites are taking over an expansive area of the Eastern USA with blue hues in the Northeast.

The next week the maps flipped back to a warm Eastern US with a trough out West.
The current 5 day depiction of the models is that the trough is further East than the above, but the basis of a warmer East had merit.

So let's follow up with the next week analog forecast, August 31st.
Wow! Talk about a huge signal of BN encompassing most of the East for the first part of October!

During this time, the daily SOI was fairly stagnant.

Here is the link for September's BSR. When I attempted to create an animated gif file it didn't upload correctly and that's quite a few pictures to place in the blog. Pay attention to the period between the 23rd and 30th. High pressure in charge over the East while an ULL drifts South towards the Gulf Coast.

The NAEFS from September 15th had this with BN on the West Coast/Northern Plains and AN over the East with normal over Texas...

Ironically enough, the CMC has lower anomalies over Texas growing by the 30th.

EPS had it a few days earlier on the 27th...

Just as the models have the orientation of the ridge-trough-ridge differently, the BSR has the same issue.

During the same time period of BSR initiation, the SOI experienced a dramatic drop in both 1 day and 3 day periods from September 4th - September 7th.

I've seen some attempt to utilize #organicforecasting "generic" #dailySOI research in an attempt to forecast the weather 18 days in advance via a chart. There are multiple issues with said chart. For instance, the chart doesn't take into account how there are changes in the atmosphere based on the ENSO, seasonal jet changes, and whether there is a 20pt drop in 3 days or a 10pt drop in one day. Per my research composites, the result is this during a Neutral Fall 21 days after a significant drop...
Look familiar? How about comparing it to the NWS CPC 6-10 day issued today?

When the EAR maps come to play, they do very well in highlighting the maps above considering the lead time. In fact, they mimic the maps above almost to a 't'. The EAR has a strong ULL pushing South from Mongolia into Manchuria. Our overlay has this in the Upper Plains/Midwest region. Also, note the vorticity moving towards Hangzhou and Shanghai which is Texas in the overlay.

Now, I'll bring the Week 5-6 analog to show some relationship...

Note the AN over the Rockies and BN stretching from West Texas to the Northeast. Have a gander at the NAEFS from today...

Yes, I'm aware of the dates not ending at the same time, but again, it's pattern recognition. Here is the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook to boot.

Again...anyone claiming that my #organicforecasting is 1:1 relationship needs to stop.

Interpretation is key and "we sniff out the pattern and picking out the right pattern is what it's all about!"

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