Tuesday, November 6, 2018

November 5th, 2018 Severe Weather and Daily SOI Research

Hello everyone!

Last night, there were 94 unfiltered severe weather reports mostly located in Tennessee.

Here are the Fall El NiƱo Severe Weather Composites used for the latest Daily SOI research.
Below are the "analog dates" that I have developed based on the Daily SOI variability.

Daily SOI rise of 20pts centered on October 13th.

The corresponding composites...

Daily SOI rise of 20pts centered on October 29th.

The corresponding composites...

Daily SOI drop of 20pts centered on November 3rd.

The corresponding composites...

00z 06NOV18 32km NAM for 7pm last night...

As the daily SOI research showed, we started to see the pattern back on the 13th and followed up on the 29th.

Below are the Euro and GFS depictions from the 00z 30OCT18 suites.

Again...I urge caution at trusting those who have a 18 day lag time chart for daily SOI changes as it doesn't take into account the jet stream changes between ENSO and seasons. Those charts wouldn't have seen the severe weather until November 3rd due to it dropping because they always associate severe weather with a drop.

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